Thomas Baker
Associate Professor, University Of Central Florida
Key Findings
- Two different groups of offenders emerged, individuals that peaked as adolescents and others that were chronic offenders.
- High chronic offenders had the highest percentage of police contacts for prior violent encounters.
- Active adolescent offenders had high police contact for prior property offenses.
- High-rate offenders tended to have short gaps between police contacts while low-rate offenders had longer gaps between police contacts.
- A majority of offenders started criminal behavior early on, except for the low chronic offenders.
- Demographically, a majority of the sample was male, non-White and from a low socioeconomic background.
- Regardless of offender type, if an individual had a prior contact with the police for a violent crime, they were more likely to have further police contact for violent crime.
- Race, age, and intermittency were significant predictors for all offender trajectories.
- The odds of police contact on specific types of offending during an individual’s lifetime increased when the prior offense is the same as the subsequent offenses.
Description
In the article, “What Are the Odds? Predicting Specialization in Offending Over the Life Course,” Baker and his co-authors examine the impact that prior offenses have on predicting whether an individual would be likely to re-offend over their lifetime. The researchers conducted their study by using data from the Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study. They randomly sampled 2,500 individuals with two or more offenses form the 1958 set and analyzed the data. The results showed that two different groups of offenders emerged, individuals that peaked as adolescents and others that were chronic offenders. High chronic offenders had the highest percentage of police contacts for prior violent encounters. Active adolescent offenders had high police contact for prior property offenses. High-rate offenders tended to have short gaps between police contacts while low-rate offenders had longer gaps between police contacts. A majority of offenders started criminal behavior early on, except for the low chronic offenders. Demographically, a majority of the sample was male, non-White and from a low socioeconomic background. Regardless of offender type, if an individual had prior contact with the police for a violent crime, they were more likely to have further police contact for violent crime. Race, age, and intermittency were significant predictors for all offender trajectories. The odds of police contact on specific types of offending during an individual’s lifetime increased when the prior offense is the same as the subsequent offenses. In conclusion, the authors note this research has the ability to impact criminal justice policy and adapt interventions to reduce crime for offenders who specialize in types of crime.