Long-term Patterns in Desistance and Recidivism

  1. Criminal Justice Technology
  2. Juvenile Justice
  3. Prisoner Reentry

Key Findings


  • Desistance is an arc, where one can slowly increase and decrease with their involvement with crime.
  • Some individuals desist crime at the beginning of their follow-up period after being released from prison.
  • Some individuals who were active in crime at the beginning of their follow-up period had a decreased risk of re-entering back into crime over time.

Description


In the article, “Long-term Crime Desistance and Recidivism Patterns – Evidence From the Essex County Convicted Felon Study,” Kurlychek examines data from individuals, who have been out of Essex County prison in New Jersey for 18 years, to identify recidivism. Kurlychek studied instantaneous desistance, where an offender immediately stops all criminal behavior, as well as other forms of desistance, where crime steadily drops over time. The researchers worked to find mathematical models to fit the data sets in order to better predict offender behavior in two different groups: people who desisted at the beginning of the follow-up period, and people who remained active in crime at the beginning of the follow-up period.

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